Effects of meteorological factors on the levels of Alternaria spores on a potato crop.

Alternaria solani Soraeur produces early blight in Solanum tuberosum L., leading to significant agricultural losses. The current study was carried out on the extensive potato crop situated in north-western of Spain during 2007, 2008 and 2009. In this area potato crops are the most important source of income. In this work we used a Hirst-type volumetric spore-trap for the aerobiological monitoring of Alternaria spores. The highest spore concentrations were recorded during the 2009 cycle (10,555 spores), and the lowest concentrations were recorded during the 2008 cycle (5,471 spores). Over the 3 years of study, the highest concentrations were registered during the last stage of the crop. The aim of the study was to observe the influence of meteorological factors on the concentration of Alternaria spores, which can lead to serious infection and early blight. Prediction of the stages during which a crop is particularly vulnerable to infection allows for adjustment of the application of fungicide and is of environmental and agricultural importance. For this reason, we tested three models (P-Days, DD and IWP) to predict the first treatment and decrease the negative effect that these spores have on potato crops. The parameter that showed the most significant correlation with spore concentrations was minimum temperature. We used ARIMA (autoregressive integrated model of running mean) time-series models to determine the forecast. We considered weather data as predictor variables and the concentration of spores on the previous day as the fixed variable.