Reproductive ratio for the local spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild bird populations of Europe, 2005-2008.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has devastating consequences for the poultry industry of affected countries. Control of HPAI has been impaired by the role of wildlife species that act as disease reservoirs and as a potential source of infection for domestic populations. The reproductive ratio (R₀) of HPAI was quantified in nine clusters of outbreaks detected in wild birds in Europe (2005-2008) for which population data were not available. The median value of R₀ was similar (1·1-3·4) for the nine clusters and it was about tenfold smaller than the value estimated for poultry in The Netherlands in 2003. Results presented here will be useful to parameterize models for spread of HPAI in wild birds and to design effective prevention programmes for the European poultry sector. The method is suitable to estimate R₀ in the absence of population data, which is a condition typically observed for many wildlife and certain domestic species and systems.