Redesigning the serological surveillance program for notifiable avian influenza in Belgian professional poultry holdings.

This study was aimed at redesigning the Belgian active surveillance program for domestic birds in professional poultry holdings based on a risk analysis approach. A stochastic quantitative analysis, combining all data sources, was run to obtain sensitivity estimates for the detection of an infected bird in the different risk groups identified. An optimal number of holdings for each risk group was then estimated on the basis of the different sensitivities obtained. This study proved to be a useful tool for decision makers, providing insight on how to reallocate the total amount of samples to be taken in the coming year(s) in Belgium, thus optimizing the field resources and improving efficiency of disease surveillance such as required by the international standards.