Tests and model selection for the general growth curve model.

The model considered here is a generalized multivariate analysis of variance model useful especially for many types of growth curve problems including biological growth and technology substitution. It is defined as Yp x N = Xp x m tau m x r Ar x N + epsilon p x N, where tau is unknown, and X and A are known design matrices of ranks m less than p and r less than N, respectively. Furthermore, the columns of epsilon are independent p-variate normal with mean vector 0 and common covariance matrix sigma. In general, p is the number of time (or spatial) points observed on each of the N cases, (m - 1) is the degree of polynomial in time, and r is the number of groups. The main focus of this paper is the selection of models for the general growth curve model with regard to the covariance matrix sigma. Likelihood ratio tests and selection procedures based on sample reuse and predictions are proposed. Special emphasis is on the serial covariance structure for sigma, which has been shown to be quite important in the prediction of biological data and technology substitution data. One-population and K-population problems are considered. Some of the results are illustrated with two sets of biological data.