OBJECTIVES: We estimated the long-term effects of smoking cessation interventions to inform government decision-making regarding investment in tobacco control. METHODS: We extracted data from the 2006 New Zealand Tobacco Use Survey and other sources and developed a system dynamics model with the iThink computer simulation package. The model derived estimates of population cessation rates from smoking behaviors and applied these over a 50-year period, from 2001 to 2051, under business-as-usual and enhanced cessation intervention scenarios. RESULTS: The model predicted larger effects by 2051 with the enhanced cessation than with the business-as-usual scenario, including: an 11% greater decline in adult current smoking prevalence (9 versus 10 per 100 people), 16% greater decline in per capita tobacco consumption (370 versus 440 cigarette equivalents per year), and 11% greater reduction in tobacco-attributable mortality (3000 versus 3300 deaths per year). CONCLUSIONS: The model generated reliable estimates of the effects on health and on tobacco use of interventions designed to enhance smoking cessation. These results informed a decision announced in May 2007 to increase funding for smoking cessation by NZ $42 million over 4 years.
OBJECTIVES: We estimated the long-term effects of smoking cessation interventions to inform government decision-making regarding investment in tobacco control. METHODS: We extracted data from the 2006 New Zealand Tobacco Use Survey and other sources and developed a system dynamics model with the iThink computer simulation package. The model derived estimates of population cessation rates from smoking behaviors and applied these over a 50-year period, from 2001 to 2051, under business-as-usual and enhanced cessation intervention scenarios. RESULTS: The model predicted larger effects by 2051 with the enhanced cessation than with the business-as-usual scenario, including: an 11% greater decline in adult current smoking prevalence (9 versus 10 per 100 people), 16% greater decline in per capita tobacco consumption (370 versus 440 cigarette equivalents per year), and 11% greater reduction in tobacco-attributable mortality (3000 versus 3300 deaths per year). CONCLUSIONS: The model generated reliable estimates of the effects on health and on tobacco use of interventions designed to enhance smoking cessation. These results informed a decision announced in May 2007 to increase funding for smoking cessation by NZ $42 million over 4 years.
Authors: John D Prochaska; Hyunjung Kim; Robert N Buschmann; Daniel Jupiter; Sharon Croisant; Stephen H Linder; Ken Sexton Journal: Environ Res Date: 2019-02-27 Impact factor: 6.498
Authors: David T Levy; Geoffrey T Fong; K Michael Cummings; Ron Borland; David B Abrams; Andrea C Villanti; Ray Niaura Journal: Addiction Date: 2017-01 Impact factor: 6.526