Cancer incidence and mortality in Spain: estimates and projections for the period 1981-2012.

BACKGROUND: National indicators of cancer burden are essential information for cancer surveillance and health planning, so that in countries with partial registration coverage and geographically variable risk patterns, such as Spain, this is even more relevant. This article provides estimates of cancer incidence in Spain for all cancers combined, with the single exception of non-melanoma skin cancer, and for major cancer sites over the period 1981-2006, with projections up to 2012. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach, to derive incidence from mortality and relative survival data.
RESULTS: During the period 1981-2012, age-standardised incidence rates for all cancers rose from the beginning of the period and started to decline from 2000 onwards among men, and increased across the whole period among women. Differences in incidence trends between men and women might be attributable to the gender-specific case-mix of sites for all cancers, and to differences in risk factors specific to certain cancer sites in men and women, with smoking being the main factor accounting for these differences between the sexes.
CONCLUSIONS: Estimates and projections of cancer incidence and mortality show divergent trends in Spain by sex and tumour type. This information is basic for planning and enhancing public health strategies and resources.