Building caries risk assessment models for children.

UNLABELLED: Despite the well-recognized importance of caries risk assessment, practical models remain to be established. This study was designed to develop biopsychosocial models for caries risk assessment in various settings. With a questionnaire, an oral examination, and biological (salivary, microbiological, and plaque pH) tests, a prospective study was conducted among 1782 children aged 3-6 years, with 1576 (88.4%) participants followed in 12 months. Multiple risk factors, indicators, and protective factors were identified. Various risk assessment models were constructed by the random selection of 50% of the cases and further validated in the remaining cases. For the prediction of a "one-year caries increment", screening models without biological tests achieved a sensitivity/specificity of 82%/73%; with biological tests, full-blown models achieved the sensitivity/specificity of 90%/90%. For identification of a quarter of the children with high caries burden (baseline dmft > 2), a community-screening model requiring only a questionnaire reached a sensitivity/specificity of 82%/81%. These models are promising tools for cost-effective caries control and evidence-based treatment planning. ABBREVIATIONS: decayed, missing, filled teeth in primary dentition (dmft); receiver operation characteristics (ROC); relative risk (RR); confidence interval (CI); National Institutes of Health (NIH); World Health Organization (WHO); US Department of Health and Human Services (US/DHHS); American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry (AAPD).