Toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic modeling explains carry-over toxicity from exposure to diazinon by slow organism recovery.

Carry-over toxicity occurs when organisms exposed to an environmental toxicant survive but carry some damage resulting in reduced fitness. Upon subsequently encountering another exposure event stronger effects are possible if the organisms have not yet fully recovered. Carry-over toxicity was observed after exposure of the freshwater amphipod Gammarus pulex to repeated pulses of diazinon with varying intervals. Uptake, biotransformation and depuration kinetics were determined. Metabolites were identified and quantified (diazoxon, 2-isopropyl-6-methyl-4-pyrimidinol, one nonidentified metabolite). Parameters of a process-based toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model were determined by least-squares fitting followed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation. Model parametrization was based on the time-course of measured internal concentrations of diazinon and its metabolite diazoxon in combination with the pulsed toxicity experiment. Prediction intervals, which take the covariation between parameters into account, were calculated for bioaccumulation factors, organism recovery time and simulations of internal concentrations as well as the time-course of survival under variable exposure. Organism recovery time was 28 days (95% prediction interval 25-31 days), indicating the possibility for carry-over toxicity from exposure events several weeks apart. The slow organism recovery and carry-over toxicity was caused by slow toxicodynamic recovery; toxicokinetic processes alone would have resulted in a recovery time of only 1-2 days.