OBJECTIVES: We assessed whether New York City's gun-related homicide rates in the 1990s were associated with a range of social determinants of homicide rates. METHODS: We used cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City police precincts from 1990 through 1999, and we estimated Bayesian hierarchical models with a spatial error term. Homicide rates were estimated separately for victims aged 15-24 years (youths), 25-34 years (young adults), and 35 years or older (adults). RESULTS: Decreased cocaine consumption was associated with declining homicide rates in youths (posterior median [PM] = 0.25; 95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = 0.07, 0.45) and adults (PM = 0.07; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.12), and declining alcohol consumption was associated with fewer homicides in young adults (PM = 0.14; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.25). Receipt of public assistance was associated with fewer homicides for young adults (PM = -104.20; 95% BCI = -182.0, -26.14) and adults (PM = -28.76; 95% BCI = -52.65, -5.01). Misdemeanor policing was associated with fewer homicides in adults (PM = -0.01; 95% BCI = -0.02, -0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Substance use prevention policies and expansion of the social safety net may be able to cause major reductions in homicide among age groups that drive city homicide trends.
OBJECTIVES: We assessed whether New York City's gun-related homicide rates in the 1990s were associated with a range of social determinants of homicide rates. METHODS: We used cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City police precincts from 1990 through 1999, and we estimated Bayesian hierarchical models with a spatial error term. Homicide rates were estimated separately for victims aged 15-24 years (youths), 25-34 years (young adults), and 35 years or older (adults). RESULTS: Decreased cocaine consumption was associated with declining homicide rates in youths (posterior median [PM] = 0.25; 95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = 0.07, 0.45) and adults (PM = 0.07; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.12), and declining alcohol consumption was associated with fewer homicides in young adults (PM = 0.14; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.25). Receipt of public assistance was associated with fewer homicides for young adults (PM = -104.20; 95% BCI = -182.0, -26.14) and adults (PM = -28.76; 95% BCI = -52.65, -5.01). Misdemeanor policing was associated with fewer homicides in adults (PM = -0.01; 95% BCI = -0.02, -0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Substance use prevention policies and expansion of the social safety net may be able to cause major reductions in homicide among age groups that drive city homicide trends.
Authors: Anthony Fabio; Rolf Loeber; G K Balasubramani; Jeffrey Roth; Wenjiang Fu; David P Farrington Journal: Am J Epidemiol Date: 2006-06-14 Impact factor: 4.897
Authors: Richard A Grucza; Pamela R Hipp; Karen E Norberg; Laura Rundell; Anastasia Evanoff; Patricia Cavazos-Rehg; Laura J Bierut Journal: Alcohol Clin Exp Res Date: 2011-11-15 Impact factor: 3.455
Authors: Katherine M Keyes; Ava Hamilton; Melissa Tracy; Rose M C Kagawa; Veronica A Pear; David Fink; Charles C Branas; Magdalena Cerdá Journal: PLoS One Date: 2022-06-02 Impact factor: 3.752