Metabolic syndrome, aging, physical inactivity, and incidence of type 2 diabetes in general African population.

The first objective of this study was to determine the baseline prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its individual components using the NCEP-R/ATPIII criteria, IDF criteria for Europe, and IDF criteria for Africa: waist circumference of at least 94 cm for men and women. The second objective was to investigate the incidence and the determinants of type 2 diabetes in a prospective cohort of 807 non-diabetic Central Africans aged >or= 40 years from December 2004 to September 2008. During 3,156 person-years of median follow up, there were 93 type 2 diabetes cases (11.5%), corresponding to an incidence of 29 (95% CI 15-43) per 1,000 person-years. The independent predictors of incident type 2 diabetes were age >or= 45 years, physical inactivity, non-diabetic hyperglycaemia and metabolic syndrome regardless of criteria used. In conclusion, urgent prevention strategies are needed to curb the type 2 diabetes epidemic in Africa.