PURPOSE: To implement 3 published prognostic scores in an independent set of patients with cancer of unknown primary (CUP), and compare their performance on individual life expectancy prediction. PATIENTS AND METHOD: The survival of 430 consecutive patients with CUP was measured after they had allocated to their prognostic group (good prognosis vs. poor prognosis) according to each prognostic score. Using a 2 x 2 contingency table, we measured the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and accuracy of each score in predicting individual outcome (survival <90 days or >180 days). RESULTS: The median overall survival was 189 days (1-4,801 days). Survival was <90 days in 143/421 cases and >180 days in 208/413 cases. The three PPVs were within the same range for prediction of survival <90 days (from 43 to 49%) as well as for prediction of survival >180 days (from 70 to 80%), and underestimate individual life expectancy of 40-50% of the patients. None of the 3 scores appeared significantly better. CONCLUSION: The main finding of this retrospective analysis is that the published prognostic scores cannot be used for rational decision making. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.
PURPOSE: To implement 3 published prognostic scores in an independent set of patients with cancer of unknown primary (CUP), and compare their performance on individual life expectancy prediction. PATIENTS AND METHOD: The survival of 430 consecutive patients with CUP was measured after they had allocated to their prognostic group (good prognosis vs. poor prognosis) according to each prognostic score. Using a 2 x 2 contingency table, we measured the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and accuracy of each score in predicting individual outcome (survival <90 days or >180 days). RESULTS: The median overall survival was 189 days (1-4,801 days). Survival was <90 days in 143/421 cases and >180 days in 208/413 cases. The three PPVs were within the same range for prediction of survival <90 days (from 43 to 49%) as well as for prediction of survival >180 days (from 70 to 80%), and underestimate individual life expectancy of 40-50% of the patients. None of the 3 scores appeared significantly better. CONCLUSION: The main finding of this retrospective analysis is that the published prognostic scores cannot be used for rational decision making. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.
Authors: Malek B Hannouf; Chander Sehgal; Jeffrey Q Cao; Joseph D Mocanu; Eric Winquist; Gregory S Zaric Journal: PLoS One Date: 2012-06-20 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: N Penel; M V Glabbeke; S Mathoulin-Pelissier; I Judson; S Sleijfer; B Bui; P Schoffski; M Ouali; S Marreaud; V Brouste; A Duhamel; P Hohenberger; J-Y Blay Journal: Br J Cancer Date: 2011-04-19 Impact factor: 7.640