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Literature DB >> 20355684

Facing up to uncertain life expectancy: the longevity fan charts.

Kevin Dowd¹, David Blake, Andrew J G Cairns.

Abstract

This article uses longevity fan charts to represent the uncertainty in projections of future life expectancy. These fan charts are based on a mortality model calibrated on mortality data for English and Welsh males. The fan charts indicate strong upward sloping trends in future life expectancy. Their widths indicate the extent of uncertainty in these projections, and this uncertainty increases as the forecast horizon lengthens. Allowing for uncertainty in the parameter values of the model adds further to uncertainty in life expectancy projections. The article also illustrates how longevity fan charts can be used to stress-test longevity outcomes.

Mesh：

Year: 2010 PMID： 20355684 PMCID： PMC3000008 DOI： 10.1353/dem.0.0083

Source DB: PubMed Journal: Demography ISSN： 0070-3370

12 in total

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4 in total

4. Caste, religion and regional differentials in life expectancy at birth in India: cross-sectional estimates from recent National Family Health Survey.

Authors: Meena Kumari; Sanjay K Mohanty
Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2020-08-20 Impact factor: 2.692