SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF WHITE FLIGHT: THE EFFECTS OF LOCAL AND EXTRALOCAL RACIAL CONDITIONS ON NEIGHBORHOOD OUT-MIGRATION.

We use longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, data from three U.S. censuses, and techniques of spatial data analysis to examine how the composition of extralocal areas - those areas surrounding a householder's neighborhood of residence - affect the likelihood that whites will move out of their neighborhood. Net of the influence of local neighborhood conditions and other predictors of residential mobility, high concentrations of minorities in surrounding neighborhoods reduce the likelihood that white householders will move, presumably by reducing the attractiveness of the most likely residential alternatives. This effect suppresses the influence of the racial composition of the immediate neighborhood so that controlling for extralocal conditions provides substantially greater support for the white flight thesis than has previously been observed. We also find that recent growth in the size of the extralocal minority population increases the likelihood of white out-migration and accounts for much of the influence previously attributed to racial change in the local neighborhood. Finally, high levels of minority concentration in surrounding neighborhoods exacerbate the positive effect of local minority concentration on white out-migration. These results highlight the importance of looking beyond reactions to local racial conditions to understand mobility decisions and resulting patterns of segregation.