Modelling the seasonality of rotavirus disease and the impact of vaccination in England and Wales.

Two rotavirus vaccines are currently recommended for inclusion in routine childhood immunization programmes. We developed a deterministic age-structured model of rotavirus transmission and disease to investigate the population-level effects of vaccination in England and Wales. The model explicitly captures the natural history of infection and uses realistic population mixing patterns. The model accurately reproduces the strong seasonal pattern and age distribution of rotavirus disease observed in England and Wales. We predict vaccination will provide both direct and indirect protection within the population. If coverage levels comparable to other childhood vaccines are achieved, we predict that vaccination will reduce rotavirus disease incidence by 61% resulting in a potential fall in burden on health-care services. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.