PURPOSE: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is an important etiology for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aim to develop a simple clinical score in predicting the risk of HCC among HBV carriers. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We first evaluated 1,005 patients and found that the following five factors independently predicted HCC development: age, albumin, bilirubin, HBV DNA, and cirrhosis. These variables were used to construct a prediction score ranging from 0 to 44.5. The score was validated in another prospective cohort of 424 patients. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10 years, 105 patients (10.%) in the training cohort and 45 patients (10.6%) in the validation cohort developed HCC. Cutoff values of 5 and 20 best discriminated HCC risk. By applying the cutoff value of 5, the score excluded future HCC development with high accuracy (negative predictive value = 97.8% and 97.3% in the training and validation cohorts, respectively). In the validation cohort, the 5-year HCC-free survival rates were 98.3%, 90.5%, and 78.9% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively. The hazard ratios for HCC in the medium- and high-risk groups were 12.8 and 14.6, respectively. CONCLUSION: A simple prediction score constructed from routine clinical and laboratory parameters is accurate in predicting HCC development in HBV carriers. Future prospective validation is warranted.
PURPOSE:Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is an important etiology for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aim to develop a simple clinical score in predicting the risk of HCC among HBV carriers. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We first evaluated 1,005 patients and found that the following five factors independently predicted HCC development: age, albumin, bilirubin, HBV DNA, and cirrhosis. These variables were used to construct a prediction score ranging from 0 to 44.5. The score was validated in another prospective cohort of 424 patients. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10 years, 105 patients (10.%) in the training cohort and 45 patients (10.6%) in the validation cohort developed HCC. Cutoff values of 5 and 20 best discriminated HCC risk. By applying the cutoff value of 5, the score excluded future HCC development with high accuracy (negative predictive value = 97.8% and 97.3% in the training and validation cohorts, respectively). In the validation cohort, the 5-year HCC-free survival rates were 98.3%, 90.5%, and 78.9% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively. The hazard ratios for HCC in the medium- and high-risk groups were 12.8 and 14.6, respectively. CONCLUSION: A simple prediction score constructed from routine clinical and laboratory parameters is accurate in predicting HCC development in HBV carriers. Future prospective validation is warranted.
Authors: Vincent Wai-Sun Wong; Grace Lai-Hung Wong; Chi-Hang Tse; Lilly K W Yuen; Hoi-Yun Chan; Stephen A Locarnini; Henry Lik-Yuen Chan Journal: Dig Dis Sci Date: 2011-07-09 Impact factor: 3.199
Authors: Vincent Wai-Sun Wong; Pietro Lampertico; Victor de Lédinghen; Pik Eu Chang; Seung Up Kim; Yongpeng Chen; Henry Lik-Yuen Chan; Giampaolo Mangia; Juliette Foucher; Wan Cheng Chow; Sang Hoon Ahn; Jinlin Hou Journal: Dig Dis Sci Date: 2015-01-07 Impact factor: 3.199
Authors: Chi-Pang Wen; Jie Lin; Yi Chen Yang; Min Kuang Tsai; Chwen Keng Tsao; Carol Etzel; Maosheng Huang; Chung Yi Hsu; Yuanqing Ye; Lopa Mishra; Ernest Hawk; Xifeng Wu Journal: J Natl Cancer Inst Date: 2012-10-17 Impact factor: 13.506