Forecasting the Population of Census Tracts by Age and Sex: An Example of the Hamilton-Perry Method in Action.

Small area population projections are useful in a range of business applications. This paper uses a case study to show how this type of task can be accomplished by using the Hamilton-Perry method, which is a variant of the cohort-component projection technique. We provide the documentation on the methods, data, and assumptions used to develop two sets of population projections for census tracts in Clark County, Nevada, and discuss specific factors needed to accomplish this task, including the need to bring expert judgment to bear on the task. Our experience suggests that the Hamilton-Perry Method is an important tool and we advise considering it for small forecasting needs in the private sector.