BACKGROUND: With the epidemic of childhood obesity, it is crucial to devise a simple screening protocol to predict impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or pre-diabetes. The oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), which is the gold standard for the diagnosis of IGT, is impractical for screening purposes. This pilot study was designed to formulate a simple, sensitive algorithm to predict IGT using clinical and laboratory parameters. METHODS: Ethnicity, family history of diabetes, pubertal status, BMI z-score, blood pressure, lipids, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and OGTT data were retrospectively collected from 209 overweight multi-ethnic subjects aged 3-21 years. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine independent predictors of IGT. RESULTS: HbA1c was the only significant predictor of IGT (p = 0.001), whereas fasting glucose was not. A cut-off of 5.5% had the best combined sensitivity (85.7%) and specificity (56.9%) with an odds ratio of 7.9 of having IGT when HbA1c is > or =5.5%. The remaining clinical parameters were not significant predictors of IGT. CONCLUSION: While fasting blood glucose does not seem to be a predictor of IGT, we propose that HbA1c > or =5.5% can be used as a screening test to assess the risk of IGT and to determine who should undergo diagnostic OGTT. Large prospective studies validating our findings are warranted. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.
BACKGROUND: With the epidemic of childhood obesity, it is crucial to devise a simple screening protocol to predict impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or pre-diabetes. The oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), which is the gold standard for the diagnosis of IGT, is impractical for screening purposes. This pilot study was designed to formulate a simple, sensitive algorithm to predict IGT using clinical and laboratory parameters. METHODS: Ethnicity, family history of diabetes, pubertal status, BMI z-score, blood pressure, lipids, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and OGTT data were retrospectively collected from 209 overweight multi-ethnic subjects aged 3-21 years. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine independent predictors of IGT. RESULTS: HbA1c was the only significant predictor of IGT (p = 0.001), whereas fasting glucose was not. A cut-off of 5.5% had the best combined sensitivity (85.7%) and specificity (56.9%) with an odds ratio of 7.9 of having IGT when HbA1c is > or =5.5%. The remaining clinical parameters were not significant predictors of IGT. CONCLUSION: While fasting blood glucose does not seem to be a predictor of IGT, we propose that HbA1c > or =5.5% can be used as a screening test to assess the risk of IGT and to determine who should undergo diagnostic OGTT. Large prospective studies validating our findings are warranted. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.
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