The incidence of fracture of the proximal femur in two million Canadians from 1972 to 1984. Projections for Canada in the year 2006.

Reported increases in the number of fractures of the proximal femur in Europe are greater than can be explained by demographic changes alone. This trend was assessed in Canada by examining hospital discharge records from the provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba from 1972 to 1984. The annual number of first fractures of the proximal femur in persons older than 50 years of age increased 59.7% in women and 42.2% in men during this time period. In most of the five-year age groups the percentage of increase in the number of fractures exceeded the percentage of increase in population of that age group. Annual age-specific incidences (by five-year age groups) increased exponentially with age, doubling every six years, and reached a maximum value of 4% in women older than 90 years of age. Annual age-adjusted incidences increased significantly over the study period in men and women. For the whole of Canada in 1987, it is estimated that there were 13,193 first fractures of the proximal femur in women and 4610 in men, and that in the year 2006 these will rise to 22,922 and 7846, respectively. The actual increase will be considerably greater if the age-specific incidences continue to increase as they have from 1972 to 1984. The gradual decline in physical activity, which contributes to bone loss, may be one etiological factor of this trend during the last half century.