BACKGROUND: Research in predictive variability of operating room (OR) times has been performed using data from multidisciplinary, tertiary hospitals with mostly adult patients. In this article, we discuss case-duration prediction for children receiving general anesthesia for endoscopy. We critique which of the several types of OR management decisions dependent on accuracy of prediction are relevant to series (lists) of brief pediatric anesthetics. METHODS: OR information system data were obtained for all children (aged 18 years and younger) undergoing a gastroenterology procedure with an anesthesiologist over 21 months. Summaries of data were used for a qualitative, systematic review of prior studies to learn which apply to brief pediatric cases. Patient arrival times were changed to be based on the statistical method relating actual and scheduled start times (Wachtel and Dexter, Anesth Analg 2007;105:127-40). RESULTS: Even perfect case-duration prediction would not affect whether a brief case was performed on a certain date and/or in a certain OR. There was no evidence of usefulness in calculating the probability that one case would last longer than another or in resequencing cases to influence postanesthesia care unit staffing or patient waiting from scheduled start times. The only decision for which the accuracy of case-duration prediction mattered was for the shortest time that preceding cases in the OR may take. Knowledge of the preceding procedures in the OR was not useful for that purpose because there were hundreds of combinations of preceding procedures and some cases cancelled. Instead, patient ready times were chosen based on 5% lower prediction bounds for ratios of actual to scheduled OR times. The approach was useful based on a 30% reduction in patient waiting times from scheduled start times with corresponding expected reductions in average and peak numbers of patients in the holding area. CONCLUSION: For brief pediatric OR anesthetics, predictive variability of case durations matters principally to the extent that it affects appropriate patient ready times. Such times should not be chosen by having patients start fasting, arrive, and be ready fixed numbers of hours before their scheduled start times.
BACKGROUND: Research in predictive variability of operating room (OR) times has been performed using data from multidisciplinary, tertiary hospitals with mostly adult patients. In this article, we discuss case-duration prediction for children receiving general anesthesia for endoscopy. We critique which of the several types of OR management decisions dependent on accuracy of prediction are relevant to series (lists) of brief pediatric anesthetics. METHODS: OR information system data were obtained for all children (aged 18 years and younger) undergoing a gastroenterology procedure with an anesthesiologist over 21 months. Summaries of data were used for a qualitative, systematic review of prior studies to learn which apply to brief pediatric cases. Patient arrival times were changed to be based on the statistical method relating actual and scheduled start times (Wachtel and Dexter, Anesth Analg 2007;105:127-40). RESULTS: Even perfect case-duration prediction would not affect whether a brief case was performed on a certain date and/or in a certain OR. There was no evidence of usefulness in calculating the probability that one case would last longer than another or in resequencing cases to influence postanesthesia care unit staffing or patient waiting from scheduled start times. The only decision for which the accuracy of case-duration prediction mattered was for the shortest time that preceding cases in the OR may take. Knowledge of the preceding procedures in the OR was not useful for that purpose because there were hundreds of combinations of preceding procedures and some cases cancelled. Instead, patient ready times were chosen based on 5% lower prediction bounds for ratios of actual to scheduled OR times. The approach was useful based on a 30% reduction in patient waiting times from scheduled start times with corresponding expected reductions in average and peak numbers of patients in the holding area. CONCLUSION: For brief pediatric OR anesthetics, predictive variability of case durations matters principally to the extent that it affects appropriate patient ready times. Such times should not be chosen by having patients start fasting, arrive, and be ready fixed numbers of hours before their scheduled start times.