Optimal two-stage designs allowing flexibility in number of subjects for phase II clinical trials.

Phase II clinical trials are conducted to test whether a drug has a minimum desired effect and to assess whether further development of the drug is warranted. They are often designed as one-arm trials with response rate as the primary endpoint, and a two-stage design is often used to ensure early termination of the trial for futility. To control the type I error rate and guarantee the specified power of the study, planned sample sizes for both stages must be rigidly followed, but a literature review suggests that actual sample size often differs from that planned. We propose to extend simple two-stage designs to allow more flexible sampling plans in both stages. Our designs are preferable to similar extensions proposed to control type I and II error probabilities. Additionally, our assumptions regarding distribution of the actual sample size at the end of stage 1 are more lenient. A list of optimal designs for typical error rates and the selected null and alternative response rates is presented.