Preliminary investigation on reliability of genomic estimated breeding values in the Danish Holstein population.

This study investigated the reliability of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) in the Danish Holstein population. The data in the analysis included 3,330 bulls with both published conventional EBV and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. After data editing, 38,134 SNP markers were available. In the analysis, all SNP were fitted simultaneously as random effects in a Bayesian variable selection model, which allows heterogeneous variances for different SNP markers. The response variables were the official EBV. Direct GEBV were calculated as the sum of individual SNP effects. Initial analyses of 4 index traits were carried out to compare models with different intensities of shrinkage for SNP effects; that is, mixture prior distributions of scaling factors (standard deviation of SNP effects) assuming 5, 10, 20, or 50% of SNP having large effects and the others having very small or no effects, and a single prior distribution common for all SNP. It was found that, in general, the model with a common prior distribution of scaling factors had better predictive ability than any mixture prior models. Therefore, a common prior model was used to estimate SNP effects and breeding values for all 18 index traits. Reliability of GEBV was assessed by squared correlation between GEBV and conventional EBV (r(2)(GEBV, EBV)), and expected reliability was obtained from prediction error variance using a 5-fold cross validation. Squared correlations between GEBV and published EBV (without any adjustment) ranged from 0.252 to 0.700, with an average of 0.418. Expected reliabilities ranged from 0.494 to 0.733, with an average of 0.546. Averaged over 18 traits, r(2)(GEBV, EBV) was 0.13 higher and expected reliability was 0.26 higher than reliability of conventional parent average. The results indicate that genomic selection can greatly improve the accuracy of preselection for young bulls compared with traditional selection based on parent average information.