BACKGROUND: A computer model was designed to test hypothetical scenarios regarding dementia prevalence in Australia (2001-2040). METHODS: The study implemented 3 scenarios: delaying dementia onset, slowing disease progression and, in a previously unpublished experiment, eradicating dementia types. Sensitivity analysis and parameter variation were the main methods of experimentation. RESULTS: The model predicts that delaying dementia onset by 5 years will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 37%. An onset delay of 2 years, introduced in 2010, will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 16%. Slowing disease progression increases the 2040 prevalence by 4-7%. Total eradication of Alzheimer's disease (currently approximately 50% of all dementia cases) in 2020 will decrease the 2040 prevalence by 42%. CONCLUSION: Computer modeling of future scenarios and interventions helps health and aged care planners understand the likely challenges society will face with the ageing of the world's population.
BACKGROUND: A computer model was designed to test hypothetical scenarios regarding dementia prevalence in Australia (2001-2040). METHODS: The study implemented 3 scenarios: delaying dementia onset, slowing disease progression and, in a previously unpublished experiment, eradicating dementia types. Sensitivity analysis and parameter variation were the main methods of experimentation. RESULTS: The model predicts that delaying dementia onset by 5 years will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 37%. An onset delay of 2 years, introduced in 2010, will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 16%. Slowing disease progression increases the 2040 prevalence by 4-7%. Total eradication of Alzheimer's disease (currently approximately 50% of all dementia cases) in 2020 will decrease the 2040 prevalence by 42%. CONCLUSION: Computer modeling of future scenarios and interventions helps health and aged care planners understand the likely challenges society will face with the ageing of the world's population.
Authors: Victor Vickland; Joel Werner; Thomas Morris; Geoff McDonnell; Brian Draper; Lee-Fay Low; Henry Brodaty Journal: BMC Public Health Date: 2011-10-12 Impact factor: 3.295
Authors: Mehnaz Ahmed; Nathan Herrmann; Jinghan Jenny Chen; Mahwesh Saleem; Paul I Oh; Ana C Andreazza; Alexander Kiss; Krista L Lanctôt Journal: J Alzheimers Dis Date: 2021 Impact factor: 4.472
Authors: Calvin P W Cheng; Sandra S M Chan; Arthur D P Mak; Wai Chi Chan; Sheung Tak Cheng; Lin Shi; Defeng Wang; Linda Chiu-Wa Lam Journal: Trials Date: 2015-10-24 Impact factor: 2.279