Shouhei Takeuchi1, Yoshiki Kuroda. 1. Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Miyazaki, Miyazaki, Japan. shouhei-t@umin.net
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: On April 24th, 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) was first reported in Mexico. Japan confirmed cases of the flu on May 9th, and the pandemic in Japan has become full-scale. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan announced that the first peak of this pandemic was predicted to occur in October, 2009. Therefore, it is most important to predict the progress of this pandemic to be able to use medical resources effectively in Japan. METHODS: We used a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to calculate the number of infected people and hospital bed shortage during this pandemic. In this model, available medical resources were investigated on the basis of four vaccination scenarios. RESULTS: Our model showed that it would take a further six months for the pandemic to peak than was predicted by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan. Without vaccination, at the peak of the pandemic 23,689 out of 400,000 people would be infected and the hospital bed shortage would reach 7,349 in total. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that mathematical models are strong tools to predict the spread of infectious diseases. According to our model, it is possible to prevent hospital bed shortage by vaccination.
OBJECTIVES: On April 24th, 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) was first reported in Mexico. Japan confirmed cases of the flu on May 9th, and the pandemic in Japan has become full-scale. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan announced that the first peak of this pandemic was predicted to occur in October, 2009. Therefore, it is most important to predict the progress of this pandemic to be able to use medical resources effectively in Japan. METHODS: We used a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to calculate the number of infected people and hospital bed shortage during this pandemic. In this model, available medical resources were investigated on the basis of four vaccination scenarios. RESULTS: Our model showed that it would take a further six months for the pandemic to peak than was predicted by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan. Without vaccination, at the peak of the pandemic 23,689 out of 400,000 people would be infected and the hospital bed shortage would reach 7,349 in total. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that mathematical models are strong tools to predict the spread of infectious diseases. According to our model, it is possible to prevent hospital bed shortage by vaccination.