A novel predictor of multilocus haplotype homozygosity: comparison with existing predictors.

The patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between dense polymorphic markers are shaped by the ancestral population history. It is therefore possible to use multilocus predictors of LD to infer past population history and to infer sharing of identical alleles in quantitative trait locus (QTL) studies. We develop a multilocus predictor of LD for pairs of haplotypes, which we term haplotype homozygosity (HHn): the probability that any two haplotypes share a given number of n adjacent identical markers or 'runs of homozygosity'. Our method, based on simplified coalescence theory, accounts for recombination and mutation. We compare our HHn predictions, with HHn in simulated populations and with two published predictors of HHn. Our method performs consistently better across a range of population parameters, including populations with a severe bottleneck followed by expansion, compared to two published methods. We demonstrate that we can predict the pattern of HHn observed in dense single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) genotyped in a cattle population, given appropriate historical changes in population size. Our method is practical for use with very large numbers of individuals and dense genome wide polymorphic DNA data. It has potential applications in inferring ancestral population history and QTL mapping studies.