Epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease with decreased susceptibility to penicillin in Ontario, Canada, 2000 to 2006.

Neisseria meningitidis has been relatively slow to acquire resistance to penicillin. We previously reported an increase in the incidence of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) strains with decreased susceptibility to penicillin (DSP) in Ontario. Our objectives were to evaluate trends in IMD with DSP, to identify case-level predictors of IMD with DSP, and to evaluate the relationship among DSP, bacterial phenotype, and the likelihood of a fatal outcome. All IMD isolates received in Ontario between 2000 and 2006 were submitted to the Public Health Laboratories, Toronto, for confirmation of the species, serogroup determination, and susceptibility testing. Isolates were considered to be IMD strains with DSP if the penicillin MIC was > or =0.125 microg/ml. Temporal trends were evaluated using multivariable Poisson regression models. Correlates of diminished susceptibility and fatal outcome were evaluated with multivariable logistic regression models. The overall rate of IMD caused by strains with DSP in Ontario was approximately 1.20 cases per million population annually (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.99 to 1.46). Seventy-nine strains (21.7%) were IMD strains with DSP. There was no year-to-year trend in the incidence of IMD with DSP. IMD with DSP was strongly associated with strains of serogroups Y (odds ratio [OR], 6.3; 95% CI, 3.6 to 11.1) and W-135 (OR, 8.2; 95% CI, 4.0 to 16.7). Infection with serogroup B or C strains was associated with a marked increase in the risk of mortality (OR, 3.07; 95% CI, 1.39 to 6.75); however, no association between IMD with DSP and mortality was observed. In contrast to trends of the 1990s, the incidence of IMD with DSP was stable in Ontario between 2000 and 2006. In Ontario, the serogroup rather than the penicillin MIC is the microbiological parameter most predictive of mortality.