BACKGROUND: Cancer of unknown primary site (CUP) generally has a poor prognosis, and there is no established standard therapy. There have been no reports of a prognostic model for CUP patients treated with a single regimen of systemic chemotherapy. METHODS: Univariate and multivariate prognostic factor analysis for overall survival (OS) were conducted retrospectively in 58 consecutive CUP patients treated with carboplatin plus paclitaxel (Taxol) therapy as a first-line treatment. RESULTS: Univariate prognostic factor analysis revealed baseline performance status (PS) of two or more, low serum albumin level, pleural effusion, bone metastasis, and liver metastasis as adverse prognostic factors. Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that poor PS and bone metastasis had the most powerful adverse impact on survival. We developed a prognostic model using those two variables-a good-risk group (PS 0-1 without bone metastasis) and a poor-risk group (PS > or =2 or bone metastasis). The poor-risk group showed significantly poorer OS than the good-risk group (1 year OS 36.8% versus 67.1%, P = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: Poor PS and bone metastasis were identified as independent adverse prognostic factors in CUP. A simple prognostic model was developed and seems useful for decision making as to whether chemotherapy is indicated for CUP patients.
BACKGROUND: Cancer of unknown primary site (CUP) generally has a poor prognosis, and there is no established standard therapy. There have been no reports of a prognostic model for CUP patients treated with a single regimen of systemic chemotherapy. METHODS: Univariate and multivariate prognostic factor analysis for overall survival (OS) were conducted retrospectively in 58 consecutive CUP patients treated with carboplatin plus paclitaxel (Taxol) therapy as a first-line treatment. RESULTS: Univariate prognostic factor analysis revealed baseline performance status (PS) of two or more, low serum albumin level, pleural effusion, bone metastasis, and liver metastasis as adverse prognostic factors. Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that poor PS and bone metastasis had the most powerful adverse impact on survival. We developed a prognostic model using those two variables-a good-risk group (PS 0-1 without bone metastasis) and a poor-risk group (PS > or =2 or bone metastasis). The poor-risk group showed significantly poorer OS than the good-risk group (1 year OS 36.8% versus 67.1%, P = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: Poor PS and bone metastasis were identified as independent adverse prognostic factors in CUP. A simple prognostic model was developed and seems useful for decision making as to whether chemotherapy is indicated for CUP patients.
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