Validation of a model for estimating state and local prevalence of serious mental illness.

This study addresses an ongoing problem in mental health needs assessment. This involves estimating the prevalence of an identified problem, specifically serious mental illness (SMI), for local areas in a reliable, valid, and cost-effective manner. The aim of the study is the application and testing of a recently introduced methodology from the field of small area estimation to determining SMI rates in the 48 contiguous US states, and in local areas of Massachusetts. It uses 'regression synthetic estimation fitted using area-level covariates', to estimate a model using data from the 2001-2002 replication of the National Comorbidity Study (n = 5593) and apply it, using 2000 STF-3C Census data, to various state and local areas in the United States. The estimates are then compared with independently collected SMI indicators. The estimates show not only face validity and internal consistency, but also predictive validity. The multiple logistic model has a sensitivity of 21.1% and a specificity of 95.1%, based largely on socio-economic disparities. Pearson r validity coefficients for the area estimates range from 0.43 to 0.75. The model generates a national estimate of SMI adults of 5.5%; for the 48 states, rates ranging from 4.7% to 7.0%; and for Massachusetts towns and cities, 1.1% to 7.5%.