HAZUS modeling for hurricane effect on a healthcare campus: implications for health care planning.

The purpose of this study was to model the damage sustained by the healthcare campus, in the aftermath of a hurricane, as a tool to facilitate pre- and post-storm planning for provision of healthcare services or campus evacuation. Using HAZUS analysis for estimating disaster associated losses, storm surge, residual flooding, and wind damage were modeled for hurricane categories 1 thru 5. The ability of the healthcare campus to deliver services was assessed as a function of the residual functional infrastructure. Implications for peristorm planning were developed. A Category 2 storm surge of 6 to 8 feet would completely isolate the campus and flood the adult hospital while leaving the adjacent pediatric hospital as a dry island. Residual 8 foot flooding would allow campus access via two of the four entrances but only after damage from the storm surge had been incurred. When combined with winds exceeding 100 mph, sufficient damage would occur to predict that the campus is not useable for a minimum of 44 days. A low intensity hurricane has the potential to render our healthcare campus nonoperational. Disaster planning needs to allow a realistic assessment of the post storm capability to deliver care so that alternatives and prestorm evacuation plans can be developed.