Assessing the effect on survival of natal dispersal using multistate capture-recapture models.

Despite their crucial importance in understanding and modeling of the evolution of natal dispersal, it is still difficult to reliably estimate the costs of natal dispersal. We have developed a multistate capture-recapture model, mixing telemetry and recoveries, to simultaneously estimate natal dispersal probability, survival probability of dispersers vs. philopatric individuals, and the proportions of individuals dying from different causes. By applying this model to the European hare (Lepus europaeus), we show that dispersing juveniles suffer from a considerably higher mortality rate during their first post-weaning year compared to philopatric juveniles, due to both hunters and predators. We emphasize the usefulness and reliability of our model in the broader context of studies of natal dispersal costs, as well as the evolutionary and management implications of such a dispersal cost in declining European hare populations.