Assessment of the ozone-nitrogen oxide-volatile organic compound sensitivity of Mexico City through an indicator-based approach: measurements and numerical simulations comparison.

The ozone (O3) sensitivity to nitrogen oxides (NOx, or nitric oxide [NO] + nitrogen dioxide [NO2]) versus volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) is a current issue of scientific controversy. To shed light on this issue, we compared measurements of the indicator species O3/NOy (where NOy represents the sum of NO + NO2 + nitric acid [HNO3] + peroxyacetyl nitrate [PAN] + others), NOy, and the semiempirically derived O3/NOz(surrogate) (where NOz(surrogate) is the derived surrogate NOz, and NOz represents NOx reaction products, or NOy - NOx) with results of numerical predictions reproducing the transition regimes between NOx and VOC sensitivities. Ambient air concentrations of O3, NOx, and NOy were measured from April 14 to 25, 2004 in one downwind receptor site of photochemically aged air masses within Mexico City. MCMA-derived transition values for an episode day occurring during the same monitoring period were obtained through a series of photochemical simulations using the Multiscale Climate and Chemistry Model (MCCM). The comparison between the measured indicator species and the simulated spatial distribution of the indicators O3/ NOy, O3/NOz(surrogate), and NOy in MCMA suggest that O3 in this megacity is likely VOC-sensitive. This is in opposition to past studies that, on the basis of the observed morning VOC/NOx ratios, have concluded that O3 in Mexico City is NOx-sensitive. Simulated MCMA-derived sensitive transition values for O3/NOy, hydrogen peroxide (H2O2)/HNO3, and NOy were found to be in agreement with threshold criteria proposed for other regions in North America and Europe, although the transition crossover for O3/NOz and O3/HNO3 was not consistent with values reported elsewhere. An additional empirical evaluation of weekend/weekday differences in average maximum O3 concentrations and 6:00- to 9:00-a.m. NOx and NO levels registered at the same site in April 2004 indirectly confirmed the above results. A preliminary conclusion is that additional reductions in NOx emissions in MCMA might cause an increase in presently high O3 levels.