Predicting mycotoxins in foods: a review.

The need to ensure the microbiological quality and safety of food products has stimulated interest in the use of mathematical models for quantifying and predicting microbial behaviour. For 20 years, predictive microbiology has been developed for predicting the occurrence of food-borne pathogens, although these tools are dedicated to bacteria. Recently, the situation has changed and a growing number of studies are available in the literature dealing with the predictive modelling approach of fungi. To our knowledge the present one is the first review focussed on predictive mycology and food safety, including mycotoxins; existing kinetic and probability models applied to mycotoxigenic fungi germination and growth, and mycotoxin production are reviewed.