Estimating the direct impact of new conjugate vaccines against invasive pneumococcal disease.

New pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are now becoming available. These formulations differ from the heptavalent diphtheria toxin variant conjugate vaccine (7vCRM, Prevenar/Prevnar) both in the number of serotypes and in serotype-specific immunogenicity. This review proposes an algorithm that attempts to predict the overall impact of these differences in vaccine formulation and immunogenicity on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) effectiveness. It builds on the principles underlying WHO licensure criteria for new PCVs, that serotype-specific anti-polysaccharide immunogenicity is potentially predictive of effectiveness. The algorithm used three sources of information: serotype-specific effectiveness data for 7vCRM, serotype-specific head-to-head immunogenicity data with 7vCRM and a recently licensed 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable H. influenzae protein D-conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV, Synflorix), and epidemiological information regarding the serotypes causing IPD in young children. Based on this algorithm, PHiD-CV and 7vCRM are predicted to prevent approximately 60-80% and 45-80%, respectively of IPD in young children worldwide, with significant variability by country and region.