Development and validation of an extensive growth and growth boundary model for Listeria monocytogenes in lightly preserved and ready-to-eat shrimp.

An existing cardinal parameter growth and growth boundary model for Listeria monocytogenes (O. Mejlholm and P. Dalgaard, J. Food Prot. 70:70-84 and 2485-2497, 2007) was expanded with terms for the effects of acetic, benzoic, citric, and sorbic acids to include a total of 12 environmental parameters and their interactive effects. The new model predicted growth rates (micro(max) values) of L. monocytogenes accurately with bias and accuracy factors of 1.0 and 1.5, respectively, for 16 batches of brined shrimp with benzoic, citric, and sorbic acids. Corresponding values of 0.9 and 1.2, respectively, were obtained for five batches of brined shrimp with acetic and lactic acids. Growth and no-growth responses of L. monocytogenes were also appropriately predicted with 88% correct prediction for 26 experiments with brined shrimp. The new model performed better than existing L. monocytogenes models with a comparable degree of complexity. The high number of environmental parameters, including six organic acids (acetic acid, benzoic acid, citric acid, diacetate, lactic acid, and sorbic acid), allows the new model to predict the effect of substituting one set of preserving parameters for another. The new model also allowed the distance between the growth boundary and specific product characteristics to be quantified by a psi value. This can be of practical importance in the development or reformulation of seafood with preserving parameters that prevent growth of L. monocytogenes and take variability in product characteristics into account.