Abdominal aortic calcification on vertebral morphometry images predicts incident myocardial infarction.

Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) measured on spine X-rays is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We investigated whether AAC assessed using vertebral morphometry and a recently developed scoring system (AAC-8) is reliable and associated with cardiovascular risk factors or events. A total of 1471 healthy postmenopausal women and 323 healthy middle-aged and older men participated in 5 and 2 year trials of calcium supplements, respectively. AAC-8 was assessed on vertebral morphometry images at baseline and follow-up. In addition, 163 men also had coronary artery calcification measured using computed tomography. Cardiovascular events during the trials were independently adjudicated. We found strong inter- and intrameasurer agreement for AAC-8 (kappa > 0.87). The prevalence of AAC increased with age (p < .01) in women and in men. AAC was associated with many established cardiovascular risk factors, with serum calcium in women (p = .002) and with higher coronary calcium scores in men (p = .03). Estimated 5 year cardiovascular risk increased with increasing AAC-8 score (p < .001) in women and in men. The presence of AAC independently predicted myocardial infarction (MI) in women [hazards ratio (HR) = 2.30, p = .007] and men (HR = 5.32, p = .04), even after adjustment for estimated cardiovascular risk in women. In women, AAC independently predicted cardiovascular events (MI, stroke, or sudden death) (HR = 1.74, p = .007), and changes in AAC-8 score over time were associated with MI and cardiovascular events, even after adjustment for estimated cardiovascular risk. In summary, scoring AAC on vertebral morphometric scans is a reproducible method of assessing cardiovascular risk that independently predicts incident MI and cardiovascular events, even after taking into account traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright 2010 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.