Tobacco control policies and reductions in smoking rates and smoking-related deaths.

Tobacco control policies are examined through a simulation model projecting smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality over a 40-year period beginning in the year 2000. The basic model and policy inputs are described. Results of each of six types of policies (tax, clean air, mass media, advertising, cessation and youth access) are examined independently and as a package. These results are presented in comparison with a business as usual scenario, which assumes no significant policy developments as of the year 2000. Results suggest that the largest potential gains come from implementing a comprehensive tobacco control policy package but that significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality may be achieved through tax increases and clean air laws.