Immunological and serological markers predictive of progression to AIDS in a cohort of HIV-infected drug users.

We have performed a prospective 33-month follow-up of the evolution of HIV infection in a cohort of 76 HIV-positive intravenous drug users (IVDUs). We report on immunological and serological variables that proved to be highly predictive of development to AIDS. In a stepwise multivariate analysis of the actuarial progression rate we found the number of CD4+ lymphocytes to be the most powerful predictor of progression to AIDS. We found no independent predictive effects associated with any other variable with predictive power: loss of antibody to p24 antigen, anergy, HIV p24 antigenaemia, loss of antibody to p53 (reverse transcriptase), decreased number of CD8+ T cells, loss of antibody to p31, loss of antibody to p17, beta 2-microglobulin level, loss of antibodies to gp41 and p64, or immunoglobulin A level. We have found that our data differ from those obtained in studies in homosexual men in the different prognostic value of those predictive markers. Our findings should help to identify high risk of progression to clinical AIDS among IVDUs, thereby assisting in the selection of patients for prophylaxis and therapy.