International trends in cancer mortality in France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, England and Wales, and the USA.

Age-specific worldwide trends in cancer mortality were reviewed, with emphasis on cancer sites where increases have been reported in the USA. Cancer rates vary by factors as high as 30 between all countries, and 5-fold within and between industrialised countries. In Italy, Japan, Federal Republic of Germany, England and Wales, and the USA, patterns of cancer mortality have shifted uniformly over the past two decades. Stomach cancer continues to decline, while brain and other central-nervous-system cancer, breast cancer, multiple myeloma, kidney cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and melanoma have increased in persons aged 55 and older. Cancer of the lung is starting to decline for men under age 85 and women under age 60 in England and Wales and men under age 45 in the USA, but is still rising for men and women in other countries. All forms of cancer are increasing in persons over age 54 except lung and stomach (which together comprise between 20% and 43% of all cancer in males in these countries). Studies of the quality of ascertainment and enumeration indicate that these increases are not attributable solely to diagnostic artifacts or to increased access to health care, although both these factors may be involved. These recorded increases in cancer should be assessed in greater detail to provide better projections of health care needs and to identify causal factors that may be controlled. The changes in cancer other than lung are so great and rapid that their causes demand intensive investigation.