Prediction of daphnid survival after in situ exposure to complex mixtures.

We applied a mechanistically based model to predict the effects of complex mixtures as occurring in the field on the survival of Daphnia magna. We validated the model by comparing predicted survival with observed survival of in situ exposed laboratory cultured daphnids to polluted surface waters, in which over 90 chemical contaminants were measured. Using the chemical composition of the surface water at each sampling site, we calculated whether or not any of the individual or shared no effect concentrations were exceeded. If they were, we calculated the effect on survival. In 34 out of 37 cases (92%) we correctly predicted daphnid survival in surface waters. In the case of mortality we could also appoint the compound or group of compounds causing the effect. It is concluded that the proposed mechanistically based model accurately predicts effects on daphnids in the field, given the chemical composition of the water. Hence it is a powerful tool to link the chemical and ecological status of surface waters.