Shinji Kumagai1, Norio Kurumatani. 1. Department of Environmental Health, Osaka Prefectural Institute of Public Health, Nakamich, Higashinari-ku, Osaka, Japan. kumagai@iph.pref.osaka.jp
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Many persons who had lived near a former asbestos cement plant (AC plant) died from mesothelioma in Amagasaki city, Japan. METHODS: Asbestos fiber concentration in the area surrounding the AC plant was estimated so that the female mesothelioma death number predicted by a mathematical model was the same as the observed excess death number. We used the estimated asbestos fiber concentration to predict the excess mesothelioma deaths from 1970 to 2049. RESULTS: In a grid just south of the AC plant, the fiber concentration was estimated to be more than 3 f/ml for K(M) (asbestos potency factor for mesothelioma) of 7.75 x 10(-9). An uncertainty factor of five yields a K(M) range 1.55 x 10(-9) to 38.8 x 10(-9); these in turn correspond to fiber concentrations of 15 and 0.6 f/ml. For K(M) = 7.75 x 10(-9), grid units with higher fiber concentrations than 0.01 f/ml were estimated to extend 4.1 km (95% CI: 3.8-4.4 km) south-southwest of the plant. Over the 80-year study period (1970 to 2049), we predicted that the exposure under study will cause 346 excess mesothelioma deaths with range of 296 to 382 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: This prediction suggests that considerable medical resources will be needed through 2049 as a result of past asbestos exposure in this region. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
BACKGROUND: Many persons who had lived near a former asbestos cement plant (AC plant) died from mesothelioma in Amagasaki city, Japan. METHODS:Asbestos fiber concentration in the area surrounding the AC plant was estimated so that the female mesothelioma death number predicted by a mathematical model was the same as the observed excess death number. We used the estimated asbestos fiber concentration to predict the excess mesothelioma deaths from 1970 to 2049. RESULTS: In a grid just south of the AC plant, the fiber concentration was estimated to be more than 3 f/ml for K(M) (asbestos potency factor for mesothelioma) of 7.75 x 10(-9). An uncertainty factor of five yields a K(M) range 1.55 x 10(-9) to 38.8 x 10(-9); these in turn correspond to fiber concentrations of 15 and 0.6 f/ml. For K(M) = 7.75 x 10(-9), grid units with higher fiber concentrations than 0.01 f/ml were estimated to extend 4.1 km (95% CI: 3.8-4.4 km) south-southwest of the plant. Over the 80-year study period (1970 to 2049), we predicted that the exposure under study will cause 346 excess mesothelioma deaths with range of 296 to 382 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: This prediction suggests that considerable medical resources will be needed through 2049 as a result of past asbestos exposure in this region. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
Authors: Sul Ha Kim; Chul Gab Lee; Han Soo Song; Hyun Seung Lee; Min Soo Jung; Jae Yoon Kim; Choong Hee Park; Seung Chul Ahn; Seung Do Yu Journal: Ann Occup Environ Med Date: 2015-01-24
Authors: Benjamin Lysaniuk; María Fernanda Cely-García; Margarita Giraldo; Joan M Larrahondo; Laura Marcela Serrano-Calderón; Juan Carlos Guerrero-Bernal; Leonardo Briceno-Ayala; Esteban Cruz Rodriguez; Juan Pablo Ramos-Bonilla Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2021-12-17 Impact factor: 3.390