BACKGROUND: Most information about the lifetime prevalence of mental disorders comes from retrospective surveys, but how much these surveys have undercounted due to recall failure is unknown. We compared results from a prospective study with those from retrospective studies. METHOD: The representative 1972-1973 Dunedin New Zealand birth cohort (n=1037) was followed to age 32 years with 96% retention, and compared to the national New Zealand Mental Health Survey (NZMHS) and two US National Comorbidity Surveys (NCS and NCS-R). Measures were research diagnoses of anxiety, depression, alcohol dependence and cannabis dependence from ages 18 to 32 years. RESULTS: The prevalence of lifetime disorder to age 32 was approximately doubled in prospective as compared to retrospective data for all four disorder types. Moreover, across disorders, prospective measurement yielded a mean past-year-to-lifetime ratio of 38% whereas retrospective measurement yielded higher mean past-year-to-lifetime ratios of 57% (NZMHS, NCS-R) and 65% (NCS). CONCLUSIONS: Prospective longitudinal studies complement retrospective surveys by providing unique information about lifetime prevalence. The experience of at least one episode of DSM-defined disorder during a lifetime may be far more common in the population than previously thought. Research should ask what this means for etiological theory, construct validity of the DSM approach, public perception of stigma, estimates of the burden of disease and public health policy.
BACKGROUND: Most information about the lifetime prevalence of mental disorders comes from retrospective surveys, but how much these surveys have undercounted due to recall failure is unknown. We compared results from a prospective study with those from retrospective studies. METHOD: The representative 1972-1973 Dunedin New Zealand birth cohort (n=1037) was followed to age 32 years with 96% retention, and compared to the national New Zealand Mental Health Survey (NZMHS) and two US National Comorbidity Surveys (NCS and NCS-R). Measures were research diagnoses of anxiety, depression, alcohol dependence and cannabis dependence from ages 18 to 32 years. RESULTS: The prevalence of lifetime disorder to age 32 was approximately doubled in prospective as compared to retrospective data for all four disorder types. Moreover, across disorders, prospective measurement yielded a mean past-year-to-lifetime ratio of 38% whereas retrospective measurement yielded higher mean past-year-to-lifetime ratios of 57% (NZMHS, NCS-R) and 65% (NCS). CONCLUSIONS: Prospective longitudinal studies complement retrospective surveys by providing unique information about lifetime prevalence. The experience of at least one episode of DSM-defined disorder during a lifetime may be far more common in the population than previously thought. Research should ask what this means for etiological theory, construct validity of the DSM approach, public perception of stigma, estimates of the burden of disease and public health policy.
Authors: Ronald C Kessler; Patricia Berglund; Olga Demler; Robert Jin; Doreen Koretz; Kathleen R Merikangas; A John Rush; Ellen E Walters; Philip S Wang Journal: JAMA Date: 2003-06-18 Impact factor: 56.272
Authors: Ronald C Kessler; Shelli Avenevoli; E Jane Costello; Katholiki Georgiades; Jennifer Greif Green; Michael J Gruber; Jian-ping He; Doreen Koretz; Katie A McLaughlin; Maria Petukhova; Nancy A Sampson; Alan M Zaslavsky; Kathleen Ries Merikangas Journal: Arch Gen Psychiatry Date: 2011-12-05
Authors: Joshua Breslau; Guilherme Borges; Naomi Saito; Daniel J Tancredi; Corina Benjet; Ladson Hinton; Kenneth S Kendler; Richard Kravitz; William Vega; Sergio Aguilar-Gaxiola; Maria Elena Medina-Mora Journal: Arch Gen Psychiatry Date: 2011-12
Authors: Oleguer Plana-Ripoll; Carsten Bøcker Pedersen; Yan Holtz; Michael E Benros; Søren Dalsgaard; Peter de Jonge; Chun Chieh Fan; Louisa Degenhardt; Andrea Ganna; Aja Neergaard Greve; Jane Gunn; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Lars Vedel Kessing; Brian K Lee; Carmen C W Lim; Ole Mors; Merete Nordentoft; Anders Prior; Annelieke M Roest; Sukanta Saha; Andrew Schork; James G Scott; Kate M Scott; Terry Stedman; Holger J Sørensen; Thomas Werge; Harvey A Whiteford; Thomas Munk Laursen; Esben Agerbo; Ronald C Kessler; Preben Bo Mortensen; John J McGrath Journal: JAMA Psychiatry Date: 2019-03-01 Impact factor: 21.596
Authors: Iman Alaie; Anna Philipson; Richard Ssegonja; William E Copeland; Mia Ramklint; Hannes Bohman; Ulf Jonsson Journal: Eur Child Adolesc Psychiatry Date: 2021-06-25 Impact factor: 4.785