An Integrated Bayesian Network approach to Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation.

Blooms of the cyanobacteria Lyngbya majuscula have occurred for decades around the world. However, with the increase in size and frequency of these blooms, coupled with the toxicity of such algae and their increased biomass, they have become substantial environmental and health issues. It is therefore imperative to develop a better understanding of the scientific and management factors impacting on Lyngbya bloom initiation. This paper suggests an Integrated Bayesian Network (IBN) approach that facilitates the merger of the research being conducted by various parties on Lyngbya. Pivotal to this approach are two Bayesian networks modelling the management and scientific factors of bloom initiation. The research found that Bayesian Networks (BN) and specifically Object Oriented BNs (OOBN) and Dynamic OOBNs facilitate an integrated approach to modelling ecological issues of concern. The merger of multiple models which explore different aspects of the problem through an IBN approach can apply to many multi-faceted environmental problems. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.