Framework for estimating potential wastes and secondary resources accumulated within an economy--a case study of construction minerals in Japan.

Material stocks in economic society are considered to represent a reserve for wastes and secondary resources. From the viewpoints of proper disposal and reutilization of stocked materials, accurate estimation of the amount of materials that will emerge as wastes or secondary resources in the future is important. We defined materials that have a high probability of emerging as wastes or secondary resources as "potential wastes and secondary resources" and estimated that amount for construction minerals in Japan as a case study. The following conclusions were drawn. (1) We classified materials that are input into economic society into four categories: potential wastes and secondary resources, potential dissipated materials, dissipatively used materials, and permanent structures. By clarifying the latter three non-potential wastes and secondary resources, we performed a more accurate assessment of the wastes and secondary resources that will emerge in the future. (2) The share of potential wastes and secondary resources was estimated to be about 30% of all construction minerals that have been input into and accumulated in Japanese economic society. (3) Information related to potential dissipated materials and dissipatively used materials will provide fundamental knowledge to support analyses of the environmental impacts and resource losses which these materials might generate.