Child sexual abuse in Shelby County, Tennessee: a new epidemic?

Following the introduction of a comprehensive child sexual abuse program in 1985, there was a significant increase in the number of validated incidents of abuse involving minors. However, following the initial increase, the number of validated incidents of abuse remained relatively stable at about 30-35 per month. While the overall validation rate was 57%, it fluctuated widely from as low as 21% to as high 92%. The validation rate rose from 1984 through 1987, declining in the latter part of 1989. The validation rate appeared to reflect the number of validated cases and not be dependent upon the number of reported cases. The number of cases validated was not significantly correlated with time, but was moderately correlated with the number of cases reported (estimated Spearman correlation coefficient was .45 with p less than .05). However, after adjusting for time, the partial correlation between the number of validated and the number of reported cases was no longer significant. The percent of validated cases (the validation rate) was correlated with number of cases validated (estimated Spearmen correlation coefficient was .84 with p less than .0001), but not with the number of cases reported. Validation rates were higher for girls than for boys, 71.1% and 31.8% respectively. The majority of the perpetrators (78%) were known to the children and had access to the victims. In over half the incidents, family members were implicated as the perpetrators.