OBJECTIVE: This literature review addresses the following question: what elements point to an impact of routine chicken pox vaccination of children on the incidence of shingles? DESIGN: The search strategy involved an electronic search (Medline database via PubMed) and crossed references. Articles were selected by reading their abstracts. RESULTS: There were few published studies dealing with the question. A total of 13 publications reported seven longitudinal studies on the incidence of shingles and six mathematical models. The population studies were all American, and reported discordant results, four reporting an increase, and three, stability in the incidence of shingles. Four of the six mathematical models concerned the impact of routine chicken pox vaccination on shingles epidemiology. All showed a transitory short-term increase in the incidence of shingles (on condition that vaccine was effective and coverage high) and a long-term incidence of shingles lower than the current rate. CONCLUSIONS: The currently available data is insufficient for any conclusion to be drawn as to the impact of routine pediatric chicken pox vaccination on the incidence of shingles. Monitoring the incidence of shingles in countries either recommending or not such vaccination should be maintained.
OBJECTIVE: This literature review addresses the following question: what elements point to an impact of routine chicken pox vaccination of children on the incidence of shingles? DESIGN: The search strategy involved an electronic search (Medline database via PubMed) and crossed references. Articles were selected by reading their abstracts. RESULTS: There were few published studies dealing with the question. A total of 13 publications reported seven longitudinal studies on the incidence of shingles and six mathematical models. The population studies were all American, and reported discordant results, four reporting an increase, and three, stability in the incidence of shingles. Four of the six mathematical models concerned the impact of routine chicken pox vaccination on shingles epidemiology. All showed a transitory short-term increase in the incidence of shingles (on condition that vaccine was effective and coverage high) and a long-term incidence of shingles lower than the current rate. CONCLUSIONS: The currently available data is insufficient for any conclusion to be drawn as to the impact of routine pediatric chicken pox vaccination on the incidence of shingles. Monitoring the incidence of shingles in countries either recommending or not such vaccination should be maintained.