Overestimation of fire risk in the northern spotted owl recovery plan.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's recent recovery plan for one of the most carefully watched threatened species worldwide, the Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), recommended a major departure in conservation strategies in the northwestern United States. Due to concern about fire, the plan would switch from a reserve to a no-reserve strategy in up to 52% of the owl's range. Fuel treatments (e.g., thinning) at regular intervals also would occur on up to 65-70% of dry forests in this area. Estimations of fire risk, however, were based on less than a decade of data and an anecdotal assessment of a single, large fire. We found that decadal data are inherently too short, given infrequent large fires, to accurately predict fire risk and trends. Rates of high-severity fire, based on remote-sensing data, are far lower than reported in the plan and in comparison with the rate of old-forest recruitment. In addition, over a 22-year period, there has been no increase in the proportion of high-severity fire. Our findings refute the key conclusions of the plan that are the basis for major changes in conservation strategies for the Spotted Owl. The best available science is needed to address these strategies in an adaptive-management framework. From the standpoint of fire risk, there appears to be ample time for research on fire and proposed treatment effects on Spotted Owls before designing extensive management actions or eliminating reserves.