Variation of adult survival drives population dynamics in a migrating forest bat.

1. Variation of survival across time, between sex and ages strongly affect the population dynamics of long-lived species. Bats are extremely long-lived, but the variation of their survival probabilities is poorly studied with reliable methods. 2. We studied annual local survival probabilities of the migratory Leisler's bats Nyctalus leisleri based on capture-recapture data from 1119 individuals sampled in bat boxes over 20 years in eastern Germany. We assessed variation in survival between sex and age classes, estimated the temporal variance of survival and tested whether survival was affected by weather during hibernation or pregnancy. 3. Among females, our analyses revealed two groups of individuals present with different roosting occupancy, survival and/or dispersal. Local survival of locally born females increased with age [first year: 0.45 +/- 0.04 (SE); later: 0.76 +/- 0.04] and the high recapture probabilities indicate regular presence in the roosts. Recapture probabilities and local survival of foreign adult females were significantly lower, indicating less frequent presence in the roosts and stronger dispersal from the study area. 4. In adult males, locally born and foreign individuals were nearly identical regarding survival and recapture, indicating a more homogenous group. Local survival was very low in the first year (0.04 +/- 0.08), most likely caused by strong natal dispersal. It further increased with age (second year: 0.55 +/- 0.20, later: 0.69 +/- 0.07). 5. Survival probabilities of all females varied significantly and in parallel across time, suggesting that a common environmental factor was operating which affected all individuals similarly. Spring temperature and winter North Atlantic Oscillation explained maximally 9% each of the variation in first year and adult female survival. In contrast to our expectations, the temporal variance of first-year survival was lower than that of adult survival. 6. We found evidence of a complicated social population structure of female Leisler's bats. Our analyses suggest that their population dynamics are driven to a large amount by variation of survival, in particular by adult survival. The reason for the major temporal variations remains to be identified.