Exploring estuarine nutrient susceptibility.

The susceptibility of estuaries to nutrient loading is an important issue that cuts across a range of management needs. We used a theory-driven but data-tested simple model to assist classifying estuaries according to their susceptibility to nutrients. This simple nutrient-driven phytoplankton model is based on fundamental principles of mass balance and empirical response functions for a wide variety of estuaries in the United States. Phytoplankton production was assumed to be stoichiometrically proportional to nitrogen load and an introduced "efficiency factor" intended to capture the myriad processes involved in converting nitrogen load to algal production. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm of Bayesian inference was then employed for parameter estimation. The model performed remarkably well for chlorophyll estimates, and the predicted estimates of primary production, grazing, and sinking losses are consistent with measurements reported in the literature from a wide array of systems. Analysis of the efficiency factor suggests that estuaries with the ratio of river inflow to estuarine volume (Q/V) greater than 2.0 per year are less susceptible to nutrient loads, and those with Q/V between 0.3 and 2.0 per year are moderately susceptible. This simple model analysis provides a first-order screening tool for estuarine susceptibility classification.