A method of non-parametric back-projection and its application to AIDS data.

The method of back-projection has been used to estimate the unobserved past incidence of infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to obtain projections of future AIDS incidence. Here a new approach to back-projection, which avoids parametric assumptions about the form of the HIV infection intensity, is described. This approach gives the data greater opportunity to determine the shape of the estimated intensity function. The method is based on a modification of an EM algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation that incorporates smoothing of the estimated parameters. It is easy to implement on a computer because the computations are based on explicit formulae. The method is illustrated with applications to AIDS data from Australia, U.S.A. and Japanese haemophiliacs.