[Tumor recurrence at the neck in papillary thyroid gland cancer. A statistical analysis of the recurrence probability after radical surgery].

308 cases of papillary thyroid carcinoma (82.6% of our patients operated on between 1952 and 1987) who had undergone potentially curative surgery were analysed postoperatively. The follow-up ranges from 1 month to 29.4 years (median 4.58 years). In 32 cases (10.4%) a cervical tumour recurrence (local recurrence and/or cervical lymph nodes) was found. 8 of these are not free of tumour at the end of the follow-up, 6 had died of thyroid carcinoma (case fatality rate 18.8%, mortality rate 66.7%, in the entire material 2.9% and 29.0% respectively). The cumulative recurrence rate is 9.98% after 5 years and 16.98% after 10 years. A statistical analysis of the probability of recurrence was carried out only for patients who could be followed at least 5 years or those who died within 5 years. Age, sex, stage of tumour and histological criteria were taken into account as statistical variables. The state of cervical lymph nodes, the differentiation of the tumour and the patients' sex turned out to be determining factors for tumour recurrence after 5 years. In order to improve the recurrence rate a differentiated surgical radicality, depending on the above mentioned variables, is recommended.