An investigation into the cause of the 1983 whooping cough epidemic in the Netherlands.

Despite more than 50 years of vaccination, whooping cough is still an endemic disease in the Netherlands with regular epidemic outbreaks. In the last 20 years, two periods of increased notifications were observed. The causes of the increased notifications in the first period, from 1983 to 1987, are contentious. At the time it was suggested to be a surveillance artifact, caused by changes in diagnostic procedures and increased awareness. An alternative explanation, a reduction in the vaccine dose, was downplayed at the time. The aim of this study was to reinvestigate the causes of the increased notifications by identifying changes in the Bordetella pertussis population. B. pertussis strains, isolated from 1965 to 1992, were characterized by means of fimbrial serotyping, multiple-locus sequence typing of virulence genes (MLST) and multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA). Shifts in fimbrial serotypes and MLVA types were associated with changes in vaccine dose and increased number of notifications. One to three years after lowering of the vaccine dose, the predominant fimbrial serotype changed from Fim3 to Fim2, and the reverse trend was observed when the vaccine dose was increased. Significantly, changes in fimbrial serotypes were evident at least seven years before the increase in notifications. Our results provide evidence that the change in vaccine dose affected host immunity and, consequently, contributed to an increase in pertussis morbidity. Further, we show that MLVA and fimbrial serotyping of strains can be used as early warning for pertussis epidemics.